CFA Society Forecasting Dinner 2013 Survey

Conducted in: 2013

The survey has been carried out on the occasion of the CFA Society Forecasting Dinner 2013, held as the 11th annual meeting of the CFA Society Czech Republic, an association of certified financial analysts. The event brings together leading local and foreign economic experts to discuss the economic forecasts for the coming year, under the auspices of the governor of the Czech National Bank, Miroslav Singer, who will also be in attendance.

The survey was conducted for the CFA Society Czech Republic online by Donath Business & Media and ppm factum research between 23 January and 5 February 2013 and aims to reveal the current issues facing the Czech economy, as perceived by economists and financial professionals.

The following people were invited to participate in the survey:

• Members of the CFA Society Czech Republic and CFA Program candidates;
• Leading figures from the Czech business and financial sector;
• Readers of The Fleet Sheet´s Final Word electronic bulletin;
• Journalists.
  

Questions related to:

• Assessment of fiscal and monetary policy;
  
• Expectations for the Temelín enlargement and implementation of the second pillar of pension reform;
• Levels of unethical behavior on domestic financial markets, and yields generated by various types of assets.

Out of 8,202 people who were addressed, 1,796 participated in the survey (i.e. a 22 % response rate). 

Key findings

The government’s fiscal policy does not support economic growth. However, the decision to consolidate public finances was good. Although 82% of the respondents do not regard fiscal policy as growth-enhancing, 80% believe it was right to push through the deficit-reduction program.

The Czech National Bank’s monetary policy creates an opportunity for economic growth, though its leaders’ appeals for support for household expenditures are far from convincing. Most respondents (61%) believe the CNB’s monetary policy promotes economic growth. A great majority of the respondents (81%) also think the CNB’s appeals will not bring about any change in the consumer behavior of the population. The respondents do not have a common point of view regarding Czech membership in the European banking union.

The construction of Temelín could boost the economy. However, the government should not guarantee the price of energy. Most respondents (59%) believe the construction of the Temelín nuclear power plant could help boost economic growth in the Czech Republic. However, experts strongly believe (69%) that the government should not guarantee the price of energy to the operator of Temelín. Almost twice as many respondents (25%) forecast that the Škoda JS/Rosatom consortium will win the tender over Westinghouse (14%).

The second pillar of pension reform is regarded with mistrust. Only 8% of the respondents expect the next government will keep the second pillar unchanged. Most (57%) believe that fewer than 200,000 people will register for the new system in the first half of 2013. Sixty-three percent of the respondents think the current pension reform lacks the potential to stabilize public finances in the long term.

Market fraud is believed to pose the greatest risk of unethical behavior on Czech financial markets. The assets with the best yields should be precious metals and commodities.

Kontakt: Karla Krejčí