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Forecasting Dinner 2016

Conducted in: 2016

About the survey

The survey was conducted on the occasion of the 14th annual CFA Society Forecasting Dinner 2016,  organized regularly by the CFA Society Czech Republic. The theme of the annual meeting of leading domestic and foreign economists under the auspices of Miroslav Singer, Governor of the Czech National Bank, is a discussion of the trends in the Czech economy and on the world markets.

PR agency Donath Business & Media, in cooperation with the consulting company Herzmann, conducted the on-line survey for the CFA Society Czech Republic on January 7-19, 2016. The purpose of the survey was to map out the views of economic and financial experts on selected aspects of the Czech economy and some general social issues.

A total of 1,410 respondents took part in the survey.


Key findings


The CNB will not refrain from its policy of interventions

The majority of the respondents (53.6%) expect the CNB to continue its current policy of intervention till the end of the year. Fewer than one-fourth (23.6%) expect the Bank’s new board to terminate the policy later this year.

Although joining the Eurozone is a strategic goal of the cabinet, 78.3% of the respondents do not expect the Bank’s new board to recommend the adoption of the euro as of a specific date.


Russian investment a threat, geopolitical interests behind Chinese investment

The perception of the effect of Chinese and Russian investment has not changed significantly since last year. Whilst the majority of the respondents (53.1%) see Russian investment in Central Europe as a threat, most respondents (61.8%) see Chinese investment as an opportunity.

Last year’s figure of 74.3% of the respondents expecting an inflow of Chinese investment in the Czech economy has grown to 86.6%. The view of Russian investment is similar to that of last year. Most respondents (44.1%) believe it will not change in size, 29.2% expect an increase, and 20.8% expect a drop.

The majority of the respondents (63.0%) see geopolitical interests and goals as the predominant strategy of Chinese investment. Less than a third (30.9%) believe China is mainly looking for long-term investment.

Nearly every other respondent (49.7%) believe the importance of Chinese investment in the Czech Republic is overrated. Less than one-fourth (24.4%) regard the public assessment as adequate; 17.6% believe the contribution of Chinese importance is underestimated.


Islamic terrorism is unlikely, corporate cyber security is inadequate

Given the international situation and Czech support of the fight against the Islamic State, the respondents regard the risk of Islamic terrorist attacks on the Czech territory to relatively small (average likelihood 33%). CFA members and candidates assess the risk as even lower (average likelihood 19.1%).

The majority of the respondents (63.1%) believe Czech firms do not pay adequate attention to the problems of their own cyber security. Only 17.6% believe the attention is adequate.

The wave of refugees will cause economic problems and burdens to Europe. Such is the opinion of nearly four-fifths (79.4%) of the respondents. Fewer than one-fifth (18.2%) see the current migration problem in general as new opportunities and potential.


 





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